While I don’t get an official Baseball Bloggers Association vote for the NL Cy Young award, that won’t stop me from giving my opinion. I think the top three are going to be the same on almost every BBWAA ballot (not mine though – I’m a rebel!), but the ordering is going to make a lot of difference.
Honorable mentions: Adam Wainwright (gasp! – 5.7 Wins Above Replacement), Chris Carpenter (double gasp! – 5.6 WAR), Josh Johnson (5.5 WAR), Ubaldo Jimenez (5.7 WAR)
3. Dan Haren (SP, ARI)
3.14 ERA, 229.1 IP, 223 K, 38 BB, 27 HR, 3.23 FIP, 3.95 tERA, 6.1 WAR
He was 3rd in the league in K’s, WAR, and expected FIP (3.16); 2nd in walk rate at just 1.5 BB/9; and 1st in K:BB ratio at 5.87. Since coming to Arizona he’s gone from being a 4-5 Win pitcher to a 6-6.5 Win pitcher. Too bad the D’Backs didn’t have their other Ace healthy this year.
2. Javier Vavquez (SP, ATL)
2.87 ERA, 219.1 IP, 238 K, 44 BB, 20 HR, 2.77 FIP, 3.38 tERA, 6.6 WAR
He was 2nd in the league in K’s, WAR, FIP, and K:BB ratio (5.41); and 1st in expected FIP at 2.87. Javvy quietly put together a career year after being traded from the White Sox to the Braves this past offseason.
1. Tim Lincecum (SP, SFG)
2.48 ERA, 225.1 IP, 261 K, 68 BB, 10 HR, 2.34 FIP, 2.60 tERA, 8.2 WAR
He was 2nd in ERA and expected FIP (2.94); 1st in K’s, FIP, WAR, complete games (4), shutouts (2), and K/9 (10.4). He was – by far – the most valuable pitcher in the NL this year, despite having a 15-6 record. Timmy probably won’t win the actual Cy Young – I’d guess Carpenter with his 2.24 ERA and 17-4 record (though his 2.78 FIP was 3rd, his innings total (192.2) hold him back) – but he still has a lot of time (hopefully) to expand his collection.
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I also really like the WAR/RAR stats, Camden, and I think they accurately highlight the fact that Lincecum, despite his modest win total, was once again the best pitcher in the NL this season. However, like all stats, it isn’t perfect. It’s true that wins are partly about good fortune and the quality of one’s teammates. On the other hand, sometimes wins also reflect consistency. And, I think, this is what separates Carpenter from Vazquez and Haren. A fluke injury depresses Carpenter’s value, but if you discount three starts in which LaRussa took Carpenter out for rest, despite the fact he hadn’t allowed a run, he went six or more inning in every start but one this season and only twice allowed more than three earned runs. Dan Haren, on the other hand, allowed five or more in each of his last three and six of his last twelve.
Those are fair points, and I didn’t look into their starts on a game by game basis. Haren pitched 30 more innings then Carp, and Javvy had 20 more. Those are the things that counted against him.
Carp was behind Vazquez in FIP too, so I don’t think I could put him 2nd. 3rd was a difficult choice, but Haren had the WAR, xFIP, IP, and crazy K:BB ratio on his side.
Carp at #3 is eminently defensible though. For example, if you use tERA for the WAR instead of FIP then Haren most likely falls behind Carp.
I don’t like “discount 3 of this guys starts, but look at these few bad starts by the other guy” type stuff in general, but I definitely see your point there.
So true, but the only starts I’m discounting from Carpenter are ones that he actually pitched well, but LaRussa was cautious with him because of his injury history, playoff implications, etc. Actually, I think Haren might benefit from a little more caution on the part of the Arizona staff. When a pitcher has one or two bad second halves I usually chalk it up to bad luck or bad matchups, but this is the fourth consecutive year that his ERA has skyrocketed in the second half (2.01 to 4.62! in 2009).