Have you heard of John Baker, the catcher for the Florida Marlins? Didn’t think so. However, he has some interesting numbers the past few years.
In his rookie year (2008), Baker put up a line of .299/.392/.447, and a line of .271/.349/.410 in his 2009 campaign.
I was thinking about the line, and saw his insane BABIP numbers the past few seasons, so I did some investigating.
BABIP (MLB)
2008 – .375
2009 – .336
To see if these numbers were even close to reasonable, I checked his minor league numbers.
BABIP (AAA)
2005 – .303
2006 – .362
2007 – .343
2008 – .359
AAA Career – .339
Well, most Triple-A BABIP are high anyways, because the MLB quality hitters tend to smash opponents down there. To do one last check, I calculated the BABIP he would be expected to put up, using his swing and batted ball data.
xBABIP (MLB)
2008 – .342
2009 – .338
It’s pretty obvious that his BABIP in 2008 was ridiculous. However, his numbers from this year show that his numbers are right on line with what they should be.
The fact that he only hit .299 with a vastly inflated BABIP is just sad, and points to the fact that John Baker may not be a great catcher. He will have to make some big improvements if he wants to keep his job as a starter, and will have to adjust even more if he wants to become one of the catchers in the top half of the league.
This is an issue that pops up more often than people think. Some writers tend to use BABIP as a measure of luck, without looking at the xBABIP to see what it really should have been. I’m not getting up on my high horse, not at all. I’ve done this in the past, and am guilty of this offense as well. That’s why I try to remember to bring up batted ball numbers when discussing BABIP, to give some context to the argument.
Anyway, here’s to your xBABIP, John Baker. Keep on truckin’.
Thanks to The Hardball Times’ quick xBABIP calculator for the xBABIP numbers.
You can read more of my work at MLB Notebook and follow me on twitter (@mlbnotebook)
