Offseason Prospectus #8: The Minnesota Twins

I didn’t watch many Twins games until late in the season, but in September and October I discovered that Minnesota had fielded a very compelling, likable team, albeit one that was obviously flawed. That the Twinkies were able to make it as far as they did, despite carrying one of baseball’s worst rotations and several automatic outs at the back-end of their lineup, is a testament to Ron Gardenhire’s leadership and also to the superior quality of the Twins bullpen and the top half of their lineup. It became clear, especially in the ALDS, that if you looked at only the best half dozen or so players on each team, the Twins were as good as the Yankees, or any other team in league for that matter. It was their lack of depth which proved to be their undoing. Minnesota’s front office will be looking to improve at several positions before they open Target Field in 2010, but the Twins, never exactly a free-spending franchise, may be even more cash-strapped this winter as they protect the reserves necessary to sign Joe Mauer to the nine-figure deal which seems an inevitability.

During the last seven seasons the Twins have consistently maintained a payroll between $55 and $65 Million. Mauer’s next contract will almost certainly earn him nearly $20 Million a season, as much as a third of Minnesota’s limited resources. Add to that the $14 Million a year that Justin Morneau will be making through the 2013 season and it’s utterly apparent that unless Minnesota commits to a considerable budget increase, they are going to have no financial flexibility. The signing of Mauer completely eliminates any possibility of retaining guys like Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan, and J. J. Hardy, all of whom will be eligible for free agency in the next two years, and it precludes Minnesota’s ability to compete for the top tiers of free agents for the next four or five seasons at least. Can Minnesota bring home division titles, much less championships, when two players eat up 60% of the payroll?

On the other hand, letting Mauer walk is publicity suicide. He is the definition of a franchise player, a guy who not only dominates on the field, but has cultivated a personal connection with the community. Albert Pujols is probably the only analogous baseball player in today’s game. In all honesty, probably the best place to look for a situation which resembles Mauer’s is Cleveland, where the impending free agency of Lebron James is also haunting a city. Players like these are worth almost any amount of money. You not only build teams around them, but stadiums and brands, the material benefits of which will last even beyond the player’s career. Ask the Chicago Bulls, or the Baltimore Orioles…

See the Prospectus at The Sporting Hippeaux