Offseason Prospectus #9: The Toronto Blue Jays

It wasn’t that long ago that Blue Jays fans had a lot to get excited about. In the Spring of 2007 they were coming off a year in which they had finally unsettled the balance of power in the AL East. Since the Jays last playoff appearance, a World Series win in 1993, the Yankees and Red Sox have had a stranglehold on their division. But in early 2007, it looked like things were about to change. J. P. Riccardi, the Sandy Alderson disciple and Billy Beane bosom-buddy of Moneyball fame, had assembled a team that was making Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein uncomfortable

For starters, there were Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, two Gold Glove caliber outfielders (Wells has won the award three times) in their mid-twenties who could hit a little as well. In 2006, Wells had finished fourth in the AL in extra-base hits, and Rios wasn’t that far back, tied with Derek Jeter at 35th. Wells had already agreed to a fat extension which would assure he was a Blue Jay until 2014. Riccardi would negotiate a similar (though not quite as large) contract with Rios a year later.

The Jays offense did not begin and end with their young outfielders. They also had veteran slugger Troy Glaus, coming of a 38 HR, 104 RBI campaign. They had sweet-swinging first-baseman Lyle Overbay, who hit .312 in ’06 and finished 4th in the AL in doubles. And, Riccardi had just signed the Big Hurt, Frank Thomas, coming of a resurgent MVP-caliber season with the Athletics. With young talents like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind also on the club, the ’07 Jays had the makings of a team that could light up even the best pitching staffs in the league.

They also had one of the best pitching staffs in the league, led by the fearsome tandem of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. The back-end of the rotation was buoyed by a stable of impressive prospects, including Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, Gustavo Chacin, and Casey Janssen, all 25 and younger. And, they had a solid closer, B. J. Ryan, coming of a season in which he had saved 38 games and maintained a ridiculous 1.37 ERA.

For Blue Jays fans it must seem like such a long time ago. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, who looked like such “sure things,” have become two of the game’s worst contractual albatrosses, having suffered terrifyingly steep drops in production of the last three years. As has Lyle Overbay. Every one of the five pitching prospects listed above suffered a major arm injury in ’07, ’08, or ’09. Same goes for B. J. Ryan, who had to be released last spring. Frank Thomas had a solid, but injury-plagued ’07. So did Glaus, who was dealt to the Cardinals after the season. And, as any Toronto fan will tell you, the list goes on and on.

Now, the Riccardi era is over. The Blue Jays gave Alex Rios away, and probably would’ve done the same with Vernon Wells, had anybody been willing to take him. Hill and Lind, who looked a couple of years ago like great complementary pieces, are now the core of the Toronto lineup. New GM, Alex Anthopoulos, must decide whether to trade Halladay, one of the most popular (and best) players in the history of the franchise, or risk seeing him walk away after the 2010 season. It’s a ballclub in shambles, and the road ahead doesn’t look particularly bright…

See the Prospectus at The Sporting Hippeaux