Jeremy Guthrie had a tough year in 2009. Less strike-outs and a whole lot more home runs resulted in a ballooning ERA (and FIP and xFIP). This year – tonight’s shellacking not withstanding – he’s made some changes and has gotten some improved results. One of the most obvious things has been Jeremy’s release point (not including the start versus NY):
The blue is 2009 and the red is 2010. Jeremy is pretty clearly throwing more from a three-quarters slot instead of over the top, and has even dropped down on a couple occasions. I don’t know if that has had a direct result on the movement of his pitches, but Guthrie’s fastball has had more sink and tailing action on it this year than it ever has before. It’s now got better action than your average fastball, and it hasn’t even cost him any velocity – in fact, he’s throwing a tick harder than he did last year (if still not quite as hard as 2008).
Guthrie’s also almost completely abandoned the curveball in favor of the slider, and is throwing fewer change-ups. The change is also back to getting the sink and tail it had in ‘08, after straightening out last year. The slider – which he’s throwing quite a bit more often (last fastballs too) – has had some different movement on it; perhaps because of the change in arm angle, it’s been more sweeping side-to-side with less drop.
Things I said in the off-season when looking at his 2009 home run issue:
“It’s the change-ups were there was a very big jump – Guthrie threw the pitch higher in the zone, and it was deposited in the seats at a very high rate… It was a good pitch for him in ‘08, so hopefully he can get it back to where it was…
The curveball really started getting hit, and given that the pitch got taken deep more frequently than the slider it might make sense for Guthrie to scrap it all together.”
Maybe I’m not completely crazy.
Still, even with the adjustments things aren’t peachy keen. Guthrie is missing even fewer bats, though his strike-out rate is better (but still well below average) at 5.3 K/9. Also, while he’s getting more groundballs than he did last year, he’s still a flyball pitcher. The improved home run rate (0.9 HR/9) is more a result of a low HR/FB^ rate, which won’t continue. Jeremy’s saving grace thus far has been vastly improved control, with an elite walk rate thus far of 1.8 BB/9. If he can keep from giving up free passes and maybe turn that extra sink on his fastball into a few more grounders, then Guthrie should be able to give the team some league average innings – like he did in 2007 and 2008 (discounting his ERAs).
