Jon Lester is currently the proud owner of an 8.44 ERA, a .188 WHIP and .305 opponent batting average. Lester looked very sharp yesterday when he fanned the first thre batters he faced, but over all, command has been an issue. Josh Beckett had similar issues on Opening Night. Beckett struggled to find the feel for his curveball and essentially became a two-pitch pitcher in Game 1 against the Yankees. The patient and powerful Yankee lineup took advantage, knotching 5 runs on 2 homers, 8 hits and 3 walks before chasing Beckett after just 4 2/3 innings.
But Beckett was able to shut down the Rays on Friday night thanks to some sharp bite on the curve and good command. He allowed one free pass and four hits total through 7 innings while racking up 8 strikeouts. The Rays are as dangerous as the Yankees are at the plate, but Beckett was able to hold them down by keeping them on their toes with the breaking ball.
Lester seems to be battling a similar problem… it’s just lasting longer.
In 2009, Lester threw his curve alomost 20% of the time, mixing in the cut fastball (19.6%) and the change-up (6.6%) as well. So far this year, Lester has only thrown the curve 11.6 % of the time and has relied on his fastball and cutter more often. Without the curve, Lester is struggling to keep batters guessing. Instead, they appear to be waiting hoim out, working walks and hitting line drives and home runs. His current BB/9 rate is 5.06, double ths 2.83 rate he finished with in 2009. And his line drive percentage is up to 25.9%, which eventually results in things like the two home runs we saw from the Rays yesterday.
The Ks are there (14 in 16 IP), but the increased contract rate outside of the strike zone (65.5%) says that Lester isn’t fooling anybody right now.
But we already know that the real Jon Lester doesn’t typically stand up until June. In 2009 he carried a 5.04 ERA and a .305 BAA through April and a 5.86 ERA and a .287 BAA through May before logging a 2.34 ERA and .196 BAA the rest of the way. Like Beckett back in 2006 (35 HR, 74 BB, 204 IP), Lester tends to give up more long balls when his command isn’t there. In 2009, after coughing up 11 ding dongs through his first 65 innings, Lester allowed only 7 homers in his final 138 innings (21 GS).
Obviously, control and success go hand-in-hand.
If history tells us anyting, it’s that Lester will eventually fix these issues and be successful, but these slow starts will make it impossible for him to ever be a 20-game winner.
