Reds’ title doesn’t validate Jocketty’s “system”

With erstwhile Cardinal GM Walt Jocketty’s Cincinnati Reds capturing their first division title since 1995, some close-minded blowhards like Murray Chass are using the occasion to poke a finger in the eye of the Cardinals’ front office. Chass and others seem to think that Jocketty’s success with the Reds and the Cardinals’ relative failure this year proves that Jocketty’s "evaluate over analyze" system is more successful. Ignoring the obvious simplification in the way Chass characterizes the systems, Jocketty’s win this year doesn’t prove the preferability of solum considerat any more than the Cardinals’ 2009 title validated the doctrine sola analysim. He "merely" built a championship team. He has yet to build a sustainable championship team.

What Jocketty has done in the Queen City is laudable. First, though, it would be a mistake to consider the 2010 Reds a Jocketty creation. This-year’s Reds represent less of a Jocketty approach — defined by his two signature moves, trading for a star (Scott Rolen) and spending a lot of money on a free-agent (Aroldis Chapman) — and more of a player-development approach. After all, the vast majority of the division-winning team was put together by Jocketty’s predecessor, Wayne Krivsky, who bequethed the team’s most valuable batter (Joey Votto) and pitcher (Johnny Cueto), as well as many other key parts. Here are some of the players that Jocketty inherited:

To be sure, Jocketty has made some helpful trades and acquisitions. But the bulk of the 2010 team’s production was inherited:

Jocketty gets credit for the cadre of low-cost free agents he signed, like Orlando Cabrera and Laynce Nix, as well as key trades, like for Ramon Hernandez and most notably the one that reunited him with Rolen. And he landed Chapman last winter. But since the Reds promoted Jocketty to his current post on April 22, 2008, he has also made some backward moves, like trading Adam Rosales, who posted a 1.6 WAR for the A’s in only 80 games this year, for Aaron Miles (whom they cut), and shipping Jeff Keppinger, who earned 2.6 WAR for the Astros, for little-used Drew Sutton. And you can debit his account for dealing Adam Dunn. But the fact of the matter is that the Reds are built on a mix of cost-controlled young players developed in their system — 14 of the 25 players likely to be on the team’s postseason roster are 27 or younger — and reasonably-priced veteran stars and role players. That’s not exactly a typical Jocketty approach.

Second, whether Jocketty’s program works will be decided over the next three-to-five seasons. If he is able to continue to win titles with his trade-and-re-sign stars approach in a small- to mid-market environment, we’ll tip our cap. He’ll soon have to make decisions to extend contracts for the young stars that Krivsky gave him and replace his third baseman; will he do what he did with the Cardinals: Increase payroll and leverage talent in the farm system to acquire major-league talent? After all, as the Cincinnati Enquirer noted, "their payroll on Opening Day was $76 million. Four of the other five teams in the division opened with payrolls of $90 million or more."

It’s easier to evaluate proven major-league talent and trade for stars than it is to analyze and project 18-year-olds and build a sustainable system. When Joey Votto and Jay Bruce start making major-league salaries and Jocketty has to make some hard choices to stay competitive, we’ll see how well his system works. For now, his team is a good example of how balancing evaluation and analysis — and mixing vets with in-house talent — is a winning formula. It’s kind of like what the Cardinals have been trying to do since he left (though John Mozeliak has been a lot like Jocketty). To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld, "See, you know how to make a championship team, you just don’t know how to hold the championship team, and that’s really the most important part, the holding. Anybody can just make them." The 2010 title is no doubt rewarding in and of itself (and certainly made all the sweeter by the opponent over which it was won), but the important part for Jocketty will be keeping the Reds consistently competitive for the next few years. That — and not a one-year title built on the work of his predeccessor — will prove that Jocketty’s system works.